Global Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast – 2020 Rebound, 2021 Record High

[Press release, Semi, LINK] TOKYO – December 11, 2019 – Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales will drop 10.5 percent to $57.6 billion in 2019 from last year’s historic peak of $64.4 billion but stage a 2020 recovery and set a new high in 2021, SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing and design supply chain, reported today in its Year-End Total Equipment Forecast. 

Released at SEMICON Japan 2019, the forecast shows equipment sales registering a 5.5 percent increase to $60.8 billion in 2020 and continued expansion into 2021, with record revenues of $66.8 billion as leading device manufacturesinvest in sub-10nm equipment, especially for foundry and logic.

The SEMI year-end forecast shows sales of wafer fab equipment – consisting of wafer processing, fab facility and mask/reticle equipment – falling 9 percent in 2019 to $49.9 billion. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is on track to decline 26.1 percent to $2.9 billion in 2019, while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to drop 14.0 percent to $4.8 billion this year.

Taiwan will dethrone Korea as the largest equipment market and lead the world with 53.3 percent growth this year, followed by North America with a 33.6 percent uptick. China will maintain the second spot for the second consecutive year, and Korea will fall to third after throttling back capital expenditures. All regions tracked except Taiwan and North America will contract this year.

SEMI expects the 2020 equipment market recovery to be fueled by advanced logic and foundry, new projects in China, and, to a lesser extent, memory. In Europe, equipment sales will surge 45.9 percent to $3.3 billion. Taiwan is forecast to remain the top equipment market next year on the strength of $15.4 billion in sales, with China second at $14.9 billion and Korea third at $10.3 billion. More upside is likely if the macroeconomy improves and trade tensions subside in 2020.

In 2021, all sectors tracked are expected to grow and the memory spending recovery will hit full stride. China is expected to ascend to the top position with equipment sales of more than $16 billion, followed by Korea, and Taiwan.

The Year-End Total Equipment Forecast is based on SEMI's industry-recognized World Fab Forecast database and input from equipment manufacturers. Total equipment includes wafer processing, fab facilities, mask/reticle, total test, and assembly and packaging equipment.

The following results reflect market size in billions of U.S. dollars.

The semi equipment market will contract 2019 but grow 20.7 percent to reach an all-time high 2020

TOKYO – December 12, 2018 – Releasing its Year-End Total Equipment Forecast at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition, SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today reported that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment are projected to increase 9.7 percent to $62.1 billion in 2018, exceeding the historic high of $56.6 billion set last year. The equipment market is expected to contract 4.0 percent in 2019 but grow 20.7 percent to reach $71.9 billion, an all-time high. [Source: SEMI LINK] 

 

For 2019, SEMI forecasts that South Korea, China, and Taiwan will remain the top three markets, with all three regions maintaining their relative rankings. Equipment sales in South Korea is forecast to reach $13.2 billion, in China $12.5 billion, and in Taiwan $11.81 billion. Japan, Taiwan and North America are the only regions expected to experience growth next year. The growth picture is much more optimistic in 2020, with all regional markets expected to increase in 2020, with the market increasing the most in Korea, followed by China, and Rest of World [Source: SEMI LINK]

After a period of record growth in 2017-18, the semiconductor equipment industry is expected to face a slowdown in 2019. Logic is strong but memory is weak, and the trade issues between the United States and China are a cause for concern. According to a report in Semiengineering (LINK), heading into 2019, there is a shortfall of 200 mm equipment. The industry requires from 2,000-3,000 new or refurbished 200 mm tools to meet fab demand, according to SurplusGlobal. But there are only 500 available 200 mm tools on the market, according to the company. 200 mm tool prices will remain high. 300 mm tool prices are lower than 200 mm tool prices these days

 

For the ALD OEM market the situation is therefore heating up even though the. Currently the top 300 mm ALD equipment companies (ASM, TEL, Lam, Jusung, Wonik IPS, Applied Materials) does not actively support the market with pure play 200 mm products except for Large Batch Furnaces. So if you want a 200 mm single wafer ALD tool today you can buy a 300 mm tool and equip it with 200 mm handling or go to one of the smaller companies like Picosun, Veeco, Beneq, Oxford Instruments, which all have 200 mm ALD cluster products on the market today.

 

 

From presentation "ALD/CVD applications, equipment and precursors in high volume manufacturing" at SEMICON Europa 2018, available on SlideShare LINK.

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Written by Abhishekkumar Thakur and Jonas Sundqvist

 

 

 

Record Equipment Spending Continues in 2018 and 2019

[SEMI] The semiconductor industry is nearing a third consecutive year of record equipment spending with projected growth of 14 percent (YOY) in 2018 and 9 percent in 2019, a mark that would extend the streak to a historic fourth consecutive growth year, according to the latest update of the World Fab Forecast report published by SEMI. The industry last saw four consecutive years of equipment spending growth in the mid 1990s.

• Korea and China are leading the growth, with Samsung dominating global spending and ascendant China on a fast, steep rise, surging ahead of all other markets.

• The Europe and Mideastern region will boost investments by 12 percent in 2018, with Intel, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Infineon and ST Microelectronics as the largest contributors.
• Japan is beefing up equipment spending by 60 percent in 2018, with the largest increases by Toshiba, Sony, Renesas and Micron.
• Southeast Asia will increase investments by more than 30 percent in 2018, although total spending is proportionately smaller than in other regions owing to its size. The main contributors are Micron, Infineon and GLOBALFOUNDRIES, though companies including OSRAM and ams are also increasing investments.
• Americas, i.e., USA grows slightly back to previous level of USD 5 to 6 billion.   

 

Source : SEMI Blog (LINK)

 

 equipment spending by region (includes new and refurbished)

Get back to work - SEMI projects continued boom in fab equipment spending for 2018

MILPITAS, Calif. ─ January 2, 2018 ─ The year-end update to the SEMI World Fab Forecast report reveals 2017 spending on fab equipment investments will reach an all-time high of $57 billion. High chip demand, strong pricing for memory, and fierce competition are driving the high-level of fab investments, with many companies investing at previously unseen levels for new fab construction and fab equipment. See figure 1.

Figure 1

The SEMI World Fab Forecast data shows fab equipment spending in 2017 totaling US$57 billion, an increase of 41 percent year-over-year (YoY). In 2018, spending is expected to increase 11 percent to US$63 billion.

While many companies, including Intel, Micron, Toshiba (and Western Digital), and GLOBALFOUNDRIES increased fab investments for 2017 and 2018, the strong increase reflects spending by just two companies and primarily one region.

SEMI reports record Q1/2017 spending for Semiconductor Equipment in Korea, Japan and China

Today SEMI reported that worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings reached US$13.1 billion for the first quarter of 2017. That is a very strong quarter with the month of March reaching an all time monthly record at $5.6 billion. Not since 2000 the quarterly billing has been this high. Most interestingly, South Korea has replaced Taiwan as the largest semiconductor equipment market.

 

Three markets are showing exceptional growth and that is South Korea (Samsung & SK Hynix), China and Japan (Toshiba & Micron), which must be related to investments in 3D-NAND and DRAM Fab equipment. This is in line with the statement made by VLSI Research at the recent CMC2017 conference in Dallas, saying that they are updating their equipment forecast for 2017 based on increased spending in Memory and especially DRAM this year.

For memory ALD process has been a crucial tool in HVM since 2004 when Samsung started production of 90 nm DRAM with an ALD HfO2/Al2O3 dual stack and since then many, many more ALD process passes has been added to both DRAM and 3D-NAND, for instance in multiple patterning and Tungsten ALD for 3D-NAND gates and Al2O3 blocking oxide in those deep trenches. That is why we can assume that the ALD OEMs should all show record revenue for their ALD business units in 2017. Obviously also PECVD and Etch will benefit from this spending.

Please find the SEMI press release here : LINK

First Quarter 2017 WW #Semiconductor Equipment Figures; Record Quarterly Billings of $13.1 Billion https://t.co/h1zYQw62pB #marketdata pic.twitter.com/WtcVV9mfqt

— Ed Hall (SEMI) (@SEMI_mktstats) June 6, 2017

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